TORONTO — Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives chugged to a third majority government Thursday, propelled by his visible crusade against economic uncertainty emanating from the U.S., though falling short of the increased majority he urged.
Critics said this $189-million snap Ontario election was unnecessary, dangerously timed as President Donald Trump's tariff knife dangles over Canada's head and called only to capitalize on good polling numbers, but voters did not appear too keen to punish Ford for it.
However, they also didn't appear too keen to reward him for it.
Despite Ford kicking off the campaign by saying he needed the "largest mandate in Ontario's history" in order to deal with four years of a Trump presidency, the Progressive Conservatives were returned to the legislature with nearly as many seats as in 2022.
Ford said he will work with governments at every level and of every political stripe to fight the tariffs and shore up Ontario's economy.
"This election was about who we are, about the future we choose for ourselves," Ford told a cheering crowd of supporters.
"Donald Trump thinks he can break us. He thinks he can divide and conquer, pit region against region. Donald Trump doesn't know what we know. He is underestimating us. He is underestimating the resilience of the Canadian people, the Canadian spirit. Make no mistake, Canada won't start a fight with the U.S., but you better believe we're ready to win one."
The Progressive Conservatives will again have a majority government, hovering around the 80-seat mark late Thursday compared to the 83 seats they won in 2022. The NDP will again form the official Opposition, though with a reduced seat count. The Liberals improved their 2022 performance by six seats.
The status quo is largely preserved, said Andrea Lawlor, an associate political science professor at McMaster University.
"The only major change that I can see is that the Liberals have achieved party status again," she said, so the snap election was effectively held "in order to bring the Liberals back into party status."
Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie framed the night as a win, though she did not secure a seat herself.
"I know tonight wasn’t exactly the result we were looking for, but you should be very, very proud of what we did tonight," she told supporters.
"People counted us out. They said the Ontario Liberal Party was dead. Ha. Tonight, you proved them wrong...It is a momentum that we can continue to push forward and to grow."
The Liberals had been without official party status in the legislature since their majority government was decimated in 2018. The status requires at least 12 seats and comes with resources and more debate time, and the Liberals won 14 seats on Thursday.
Ford's Protect Ontario campaign message came as Canadians found themselves caught in the swirling Trump vortex with frequently shifting winds.
Voters were looking for an anchor and Ford presented as one, suggested Karl Baldauf, senior vice-president at public affairs firm McMillan Vantage and a former Ford government staffer.
"As it relates to the story of Canada, things are changing in ways — and in profound ways — which each and every day we are realizing are deeper and more significant than we had thought," Baldauf said.
"And he had the foresight to get in front of that and to wrap his campaign, not just in this opportunity for patriotism, but in response to the real challenges and worries that Ontarians have."
Ford had the good political fortune to take over last summer as chair of the group of Canada's 13 premiers, a position that rotates among the provinces.
When the federal government found itself embroiled in political chaos at a critical time in the tariff fight, Ford became the most conspicuous champion of Canada’s cause.
He has been dubbed Captain Canada, and while it’s a label his critics use derisively, Ford leaned into it, including wearing and promoting an Ottawa entrepreneur’s "Canada is not for sale" baseball cap.
"Will he also be lucky in four years from now, if the Trump tariffs come through and there are significant impacts on Ontario's economy?" Baldauf said.
"Well, maybe not, but for this moment in time, he is seizing upon the good fortune."
Ford campaigned hard to use his anti-tariff, pro-worker message to take NDP seats such as Windsor West — both a border city and with a large manufacturing presence — but the New Democrats retained most of them.
NDP strategist Melanie Richer said it shows that the Progressive Conservatives are not the party of labour.
"I think when push comes to shove, who stands with workers always in good times and in bad?" she said.
However, the NDP lost several seats, ending up with about 25 – fewer than the 31 they won in 2022. Leader Marit Stiles said the results weren't everything they hoped for, but the people of Ontario made their choice.
"They've re elected the government, hoping it will help protect them from Donald Trump and his tariffs, and they've entrusted me and my team to do a different but also very important job," she said.
"We've been tasked again to serve the people of Ontario as their official Opposition. Our job is to hold this government to account, and that is the job that we are going to do with our usual fight and our determination, but also with love and hope and optimism."
The Progressive Conservatives also made a strong push in Haldimand-Norfolk, where Bobbi Ann Brady was running for re-election as an independent, but she resoundingly defeated the party for a second time.
Aside from tens of billions of dollars in spending that the Progressive Conservatives have pledged to counteract the effects of tariffs, their election platform hit on all the Ford high notes of infrastructure, skilled trades, cutting red tape and tough-on-crime promises with a shot of alcohol thrown in for good measure.
Ford promised to eliminate the minimum retail price for liquor, a move reminiscent of his signature 2018 campaign promise of Buck-a-Beer.
Though perhaps his splashiest promise this time around is to build a tunnel under Highway 401. He has not offered up any ballpark cost estimates for such a massive project, and a feasibility study Ford said he ordered last year is not complete, but he said it will get built regardless.
Notably absent from his platform was his oft-repeated promise from his successful 2022 campaign, to build 1.5 million homes by 2031. He affirmed in person that it is still his goal, though that target has become increasingly out of reach with each passing year.
While Ford made tariffs and the economy the focal point of his campaign, Crombie centred her campaign on a promise to connect every Ontarian to a family doctor, and Stiles spoke a lot about health care and affordability.
Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner was the first to release a fully costed platform, with many promises on various provincial policy issues including building more housing, protecting farmland and improving affordability.
The party has held onto both Schreiner's seat in Guelph and another in Kitchener Centre they picked up in a 2023 byelection.
They were hoping to add a third in Parry Sound-Muskoka — a seat the Greens have long had their eye on and where they came second in 2022 — but they again fell short.
Schreiner said the two Green representatives will continue to hold the government to account.
"I say to progressive voters across the province of Ontario: Don't agonize. Organize," he said.
Turnout was widely expected to be a concern on election day, with several weather advisories in effect in parts of the province on Thursday morning, but the percentage was a touch higher than in 2022's record low, at about 45 per cent.
— With files from Rianna Lim in Toronto, Sharif Hassan in Mississauga and Maan Alhmidi in Guelph.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 27, 2025.
Allison Jones and Liam Casey, The Canadian Press
