One of the enduring tensions in Toronto is between the central city built before 1945 and the inner suburbs — Scarborough, Etobicoke — developed later on.
Both parts of the city have areas of wealth, poverty and middle incomes, and both are deeply shaped by immigration.
However, the central core was built largely for people to get around on foot and using transit, and the “suburban 416” was built for cars.
This difference has long been visible at the ballot box.
Ahead of this month’s provincial election, Pallas Data surveyed 2,193 eligible Ontario voters on Feb. 11 and 12 on behalf of The Trillium and TorontoToday to find out downtown residents’ views of campaign issues compared to their counterparts in the inner boroughs and elsewhere in the province.
Pallas found support for the NDP — which swept much of Toronto in the 2022 election — is 22 per cent higher in the downtown core than in the suburban 416, where the PC Party dominates with 44 per cent support. The PCs have 29 per cent support downtown, per the survey.
Support for the Ontario Liberal Party also grows in the suburban 416 compared to downtown, but by a slimmer margin than for the PCs. The Liberals dominated in areas like Scarborough during ex-premier Dalton McGuinty’s rein, but PC Leader Doug Ford has been able to make inroads into areas of Toronto where the Tories were historically unpopular.
Use the Toronto tab below to see the contrast.
The vibes might be better in the ‘burbs.
Pallas found downtowners are more likely to say the province is headed in the wrong direction compared to those who live in places like Scarborough and Etobicoke. Only one in five downtowners told the pollster they think Ontario is heading in the right direction.
Unsurprisingly, people in the suburban 416 were more likely to say they get around by car than by transit, on bikes, or as pedestrians.
This is reflected in opinions about bike lanes. Asked about the Ford government’s legislation that allows the government to override municipalities to block the construction of bike lanes that require the removal of a car lane, 60 per cent of downtowners told Pallas they disagree or strongly disagree with the move.
In the suburban 416, 40 per cent of residents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement about Ford’s bill. Local opposition to the Bloor Street West bike lane that runs through Etobicoke appears to have spurred the PC government to take action against bike lanes.
Pallas found the top issue for both suburbanites and downtowners this election campaign is housing and cost-of-living. Forty per cent of respondents in the suburban 416 said cost-of-living is motivating their vote, compared to 30 per cent of those downtown.
Tariffs and trade — an issue Ford has been spearheading since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House last month — is a vote-motivating issue for 13 per cent of suburbanites and nine per cent of downtowners.
Both groups prioritized education to the same degree, while downtown respondents were more likely to say government ethics would motivate their vote.
People in the core were more likely to say the housing crisis should be tackled by allowing more density and by the provincial government subsidizing the cost of building affordable housing.
Both groups similarly said the development charges homebuilders pay to build should be lowered, while suburbanites felt more favour towards the government opening up more land for development.
A whopping 69 per cent of respondents in the core said the province should be directly involved in funding new housing construction, something Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow has been pursuing. The majority of suburban 416 respondents agreed.
Urbanites and suburbanites were equally likely to report seeing homeless encampments often, and that seeing them makes them upset. The province’s homeless population has increased by 25 per cent since 2022, according to the Association of Municipalities of Ontario.
A much greater percentage of core dwellers told Pallas they see homeless encampments often, and that that doesn't make them upset, suggesting downtowners are hardened by the poverty on view on Toronto streets.
Adding the groups together, 77 per cent of suburbanites are upset by the fact that people live in encampments, whether they regularly see them or not, as compared with 68 per cent of people in the core.
The two groups both support platform doors on the subway by almost equal margins. Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie has made installing them one of her campaign promises. The cost forecast for the public safety measure has been pegged at $1 billion by the TTC.
Both groups of Torontonians overwhelmingly oppose the province spending $2.24 billion for its Ontario Place redevelopment project, which includes the controversial Therme spa.
The Pallas poll was conducted provincewide from February 11th to 12th, 2025 among a sample of 2,193 adults, using automated telephone interviews. The sample was weighted according to the 2021 census. The survey is intended to The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample, such as that used for the Toronto-specific issues.
