With Toronto’s budget now finalized, Mayor Olivia Chow needs to take her head out of city hall and start making political demands of other orders of government.
In a moment of eclipse-like rarity, we are in the midst of both a provincial election and federal Liberal leadership race. A federal election is not far off.
But on the municipal level, Toronto’s mayor and councillors are safe in their seats for another 20 months, giving them an uncommon opportunity to use their political clout to score wins for the city while their provincial and federal counterparts seek fresh mandates.
Chow has thus far proven adept at navigating her relationships with a Conservative premier and Liberal prime minister — and it took effort and skill to make that happen.
After all, Doug Ford endorsed Chow's mayoral opponent Mark Saunders and warned she'd be an "unmitigated disaster" if elected. Yet, Chow was able to strike a deal to upload the Gardiner and Don Valley Parkway boondoggles from Toronto to the province, and secure transit and shelter funding in exchange for ceding political opposition to Ontario Place, all while the province held all the leverage.
It wasn't perfect, but it was a win.
Similarly, under Chow, Toronto has managed to secure federal agreements for housing, transit and shelter services. There's still room for more work here, as a lot of the federal money comes by way of "commitments," which is the intergovernmental version of an IOU.
For instance, as the Star reported, Ottawa’s promise to fund one-third of the cost of much-needed Line 2 subway cars won't actually be paid out until 2026, which is after the next federal election.
Chow knows better than most that funding commitments, or even works in progress, do not necessarily survive a change in government.
There was former premier Mike Harris’ infamous cancellation of the Eglinton subway project when Chow was a city councillor. During her time as an NDP MP, she saw her late husband Jack Layton and former prime minister Paul Martin narrowly miss out on a new deal for cities when Martin’s Liberal minority government was toppled. Not only did such a deal not resurface in the wake of a Stephen Harper government, but the national child care program Chow’s party fought for was cancelled.
From her perch in Ottawa, Chow also watched ex-mayor Rob Ford cancel most of Transit City immediately upon taking office.
Chow faces scenarios that could echo some of this history.
Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives lead handily in federal opinion polls.
Should that party win government later this year, Poilievre is unlikely to be keen to negotiate directly with Chow on issues like transit, housing and infrastructure funding, making it harder for the mayor to get big, multi-billion dollar projects done.
This makes the timing urgent for Chow to squeeze cold hard cash out of the current Liberal government in Ottawa — and to sway its leadership contenders to her cause — while it still has the ability to write cheques.
Meanwhile, Ford's Progressive Conservatives lead the polls provincially, and they're seeking an expanded mandate. Adding to their seat count would likely require flipping some seats in Toronto while also defending their marginal ones.
That means the PCs need some city-friendly campaign ideas — a potentially tall order for a party that has adopted local bike lanes as a culture war wedge issue.
This is especially true when one of Ford’s signature promises from the last election, to “get it done” on rapid housing construction, has fallen woefully short.
Whether it's calling for a new operating funding model for the TTC or re-visiting the housing debate over fourplexes, now is the time for Chow to make big asks of provincial parties.
In a snap election, the mayor’s team could save the parties legwork by putting together a cities platform for them to steal. She could work with other mayors in the Association of Municipalities of Ontario, which Toronto just re-joined earlier this month after a two-decade absence, to make sure cities get noticed.
Similarly, Chow should capitalize on the federal Liberal leadership race by calling on the candidates to promise to accelerate any funding commitments that are beyond the next election. It's not a guarantee that a given project gets done, but it sure helps.
There's a narrow window for Chow to get her counterparts on board with prioritizing Toronto as the economic engine of Canada. She can remind them it’s a city with a lot of votes to be had.
Chow has the skills and the opportunity for this moment. While federal Liberals and provincial parties are campaigning, she ought to wage a campaign of her own on behalf of Toronto. She won't get a better chance.
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David Hains is the former editor of Torontoist and deputy editor of Queen's Park Briefing.
