Skating around Toronto’s harbour in Lake Ontario may be tempting for adventurous locals looking to boost their social media following this winter, but experts are warning that a projected lack of ice won’t make the risk worth it.
As of Monday afternoon, surface temperatures on Lake Ontario were still around 8 C, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL).
Doug Gillham, a senior meteorologist with The Weather Network, said the lake is slightly warmer compared to previous year average temperature of 6 C. Gillham doesn’t suspect ice will form in Toronto’s harbour until after Christmas — even if air temperatures took a sudden and dramatic dip this month.
If the water around the harbour does freeze early next year, the icy sheet wouldn’t be expected to stick around for long — perhaps a week or two, according to Gillham.
“We’ll see below normal ice. But if we get to late-January and February and have a week of severe cold, like -15 C to -20 C for a few nights, you can still freeze the harbour — but probably not in a way where we would keep it for the rest of the winter.”
“The wind is also so important,” he added. “We’ve had some severe cold, but if it’s windy, you’re just not going to get ice since the water is moving. The speed of the wind is as important as the temperature.”
Ice coverage on Lake Ontario fell to a record low last winter, covering just 1.7 per cent of the system, according to GLERL. Averaging 25 per cent coverage year to year, Lake Ontario gets the least amount of ice out of all the Great Lakes.
In the modern era, Lake Ontario has never entirely frozen over. The closest it came was in 1979 when satellite data revealed 85 per cent of the lake was covered.
Videos of Torontonians skating on Lake Ontario during cold winters in years past have been known to go viral, generating millions of reactions across the globe.
But the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority warns that during the winter season, rainfall and snowmelt can weaken ice cover — making it unstable and unsafe.
When winter hits, the conservation authority reminds residents to:
- Keep away from riverbanks and all water bodies, even if the surface is covered in ice
- Avoid ice-covered water bodies and do not attempt to drive or walk on them
- Always obey safety signage
- Avoid recreational activities near water bodies, especially near ice jams
- Seek help in event of emergencies, refrain from trying to rescue another person or a pet and call 911 for help immediately
“Skating out there is never recommended, there’s always a risk — especially when there’s open water on the other side of the island,” Gillham said. “People feel it’s safe and they take on the risk and have a great time, but there’s always that risk.”
The city told TorontoToday there are more than 50 outdoor rink options in its catchment area.
Public skating at Grenadier Pond — the well-known natural attraction in High Park — was banned in 2001. But in 2015, the city began allowing locals to use the space again for certain periods of winter. The city’s parks and recreation department monitors the ice conditions there annually and posts its findings on the city’s website.
