Carbon emissions across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Hamilton have been steadily rising since the pandemic, putting Toronto’s goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2040 in jeopardy.
Emissions rose by two per cent in 2023, according to an annual report by The Atmospheric Fund. In total, 54.5 million tonnes of carbon were added to the atmosphere last year, up from 53.5 million tonnes the year prior.
In order for municipalities to reach their 2030 reduction targets, emissions would have to decrease by 11 per cent each year, the report found. That number is only getting steeper each year that emissions continue to rise.
Toronto has committed to a “Net Zero Strategy” that aims to eliminate carbon emissions by 2040. The city said it was able to reach its 2020 goal of reducing emissions by 30 per cent compared to 1990 levels due to “an anomaly year during COVID-19 restrictions.” But if emission rates continue to rise, the city could be on track to fail its 2025 reduction target of 45 per cent.
The biggest emitters in the GTA and Hamilton were reportedly buildings and transportation.
Buildings alone accounted for 45 per cent of emissions in the region during 2023, slightly down from the year prior. This is likely due to a milder winter causing lower demand for space heating, the report found.
Researchers from The Atmospheric Fund noted the provincial energy grid became significantly more carbon intensive in 2023. This occurred after Premier Doug Ford ramped up the use of gas-powered electricity plants, which burn fuel to produce electricity in the province.
Despite electricity demand in the GTA and Hamilton actually decreasing slightly by 0.7 per cent, emissions coming from the electricity grid shot up by a staggering 30 per cent.
“This is a direct consequence of the province’s increasing reliance on gas-fired electricity generation, which is forecast to continue to increase over the next 10 years and partially offset carbon reductions realized through electrification of other sectors,” the report reads.
Electricity emissions are now the highest they’ve been since 2015, when the province shuttered its last coal-powered plants.
The future of carbon emissions in the GTA looks grim, but one bright side is that Toronto continues to have the lowest per capita emissions in the region. The report said this is “largely due to the higher use of transit, walking, and cycling, enabled by its density.”
Total emissions in Toronto rose by 1.5 per cent in 2023, with the transportation sector being the biggest driver for the increase, largely due to the use of personal vehicles.
