EDITOR’S NOTE: This article originally appeared on The Trillium, a Village Media website devoted to covering provincial politics at Queen’s Park.
Ontario's Progressive Conservatives have a comfortable lead over their opponents — but most Ontarians don't buy Doug Ford's explanation for why he called an early election in the first place, a new poll shows.
Pallas Data surveyed 1,014 eligible Ontario voters on Feb. 1 and 2 on behalf of The Trillium. It found that 45 per cent of decided and leaning respondents would vote for Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives.
Bonnie Crombie's Liberals are in second place with 28 per cent, and Marit Stiles' NDP is in third with 21, the poll found. The Greens sit at 5 per cent.
The poll was in the field as U.S. President Donald Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on all imports from Canada, except energy, which was to face a 10 per cent tariff. The polling concluded before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced an agreement had been reached to pause the tariffs for one month.
Tariffs are a cause of massive concern for Ontario voters, with 43 per cent saying they are very worried about the tariffs and another 28 per cent saying they are a little worried. Only 18 per cent said they are somewhat worried, and 8 per cent are not worried at all.
Ford has made the tariffs his number-one issue. He kicked off his campaign in front of the Ambassador Bridge behind him, emphasizing Ontario's connection with the United States. PC candidates who stood behind him wearing hats proclaiming that “Canada is not for sale” also served as backdrop. The PCs' election slogan is “Protect Ontario," and at every campaign stop, Ford has been making his case that he is the best choice to protect the province's interests in the trade war.
Ford is the most trusted leader on the issue, the poll found. Fifty per cent of Ontarians said he is the best choice among party leaders to represent the province on tariffs and trade, followed by 24 per cent for Crombie and 19 per cent for Stiles.
Ford was the top choice even among 15 per cent of respondents who said they'd vote Liberal and 6 per cent of those who plan to vote NDP.
Still, most Ontarians said they do not believe Ford's explanation for calling the election more than a year before its scheduled date in 2026.
When presented with his reason — to get a strong mandate to fight Trump's tariffs — and the opposition's accusation that he is calling the election out of political self-interest to take advantage of high poll numbers before the RCMP concludes its investigation into the Greenbelt, 60 per cent said they agree more with the opposition.
More than a quarter of respondents who identified as PC supporters — 26 per cent — agreed with the opposition leaders that Ford called the election out of political self-interest.
However, few — only one-in-10 PC-inclined respondents — said they were less likely to vote for that party because of the early call.
There are signs, however, that not all is well in Ford Nation. More than half — 53 per cent of respondents — said they believe the province is heading in the wrong direction, about twice the share of respondents who said it's headed in the right direction.
However, voters are also split on the alternatives to Ford. When respondents were asked whether they have a favourable or unfavourable impression of each party leader, only the NDP's Stiles had a positive net rating — at 2.5 points. Very few self-identified PC supporters view either Stiles or Crombie favourably, which would make it challenging for either to draw down the PC vote.
